Bill Gurley的博客分享的很多思考是理論層次的。博客名字取得很好，叫萬人之上（“Above the Crowd“）。

誠然，文章有高下：萬人喃喃不如哲人一語。

每篇文章大抵分為這五個價值層次：

情緒（無價值）

信息（囿于時效）

情報（時效 + 保密性）

知識（止于實用）

智慧（“道”）

筆者認為，當代中國投資人里談吐間智慧密度最高的非段永平莫屬；而近日聽的一期播客，終于在美國人里找到了棋逢對手的Jim O'Shaughnessy（后文簡稱Jim）；短短一個小時，居然滿是金句，頗為震撼。

Jim其人，價值投資35年，創辦三家投資公司，OSAM資產管理規模60億美金，雖然不是巨富，但言語中充滿了哲理和開悟。Jim祖父I.A. O'Shaughnessy曾是美國最有錢的億萬富豪，卻在臨死前散盡家財。

本文試著摘錄一些思想，目錄如下：

1.

一個反直覺的理論

：穿越周期

2.

投資的天啟四騎士

a. 可能性和或然性

b. 蛇和回撤

c. 畫鬼容易畫人難

3.

區分人才的唯一指標

：延遲滿足感

4.

家族財富的智慧

-- 樂善好施，以產遺

子孫，不如以德遺子孫

一個反直覺的理論：

穿越周期

無論如何換起止日期，在歷史上任意的20年里，美股指數的絕對回報（刨除通脹），全部是正的。

聽到這句話的時候，筆者有點不敢相信自己的耳朵：這不就是“美股永遠漲”嗎?？

也就是說，不管你的時機有多差，從最高點買入，最低點賣出，只要是等了20年的，全都是賺的？怎么可能？

想象一下你的賣出日期是1941年12月，經歷了大蕭條、一次世界大戰，日本在月初剛剛轟炸珍珠港，摧毀了太平洋艦隊的主力...

即使在這個歷史最差的賣出時機清倉，你的年化收益也有3.8%！

而如果你坐穩扶好，在最低點沒賣，五年后隨著諾曼底登陸和馬歇爾計劃，就會坐收額外的+136.8%的收益。

歷史上第二差的清倉時機是2009年2月：08年金融海嘯的谷底。如果你沒有扛過黎明前的黑暗，非要在最低點賣出，年化收益也有3.86%。

Let’s put this into perspective. The 40 years ending in 1941 included the stock market panic of 1907, which drove down the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly 38 percent; the World War I Era, where the period between 1910 and 1919 was one of the worst ever for stocks; AND, oh yes, the Great Depression. Finally, icing on the 40-year cake, the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. How could these last 40 years even begin to match that? Alas, they did.

If you look at all rolling 20 year periods real returns so inflation taken out there's never been a 20 year rolling period where the market in the US at least was negative. Now it has been negative in other markets. But in the United States, given the size of our economy. Given the size of our stock market. It's never been negative or a 20 year period now does that mean it will never will be no course not, some. Horrific horrible thing could happen and it could lead to a 20 year negative number. In fact, it got close for the 20 years, ending 08 but again probabilities if you can think probabilistically. And tone down and control your emotions what's going to happen is that overtime directionally. These models are going to continue to work and you know to try to be very specific and say, Yes, it will compound at 13.23 percent.

2009年三月，Jim發表了一篇短小精悍的檄文：一代人一遇的時機（“A Generational Opportunity ”），文章激起無數爭議、從者寥寥。十三年后的今天回看，字字珠璣，只有智慧而沒有無效的情緒，甚至于當年的論點延伸至今都能牢牢立住。發文時間正是市場最低點，如果當時入市，回報驚人。

主持人問Jim，你當年是如何做出正確判斷的呢？Jim笑答：看那數據，像是在向我們尖叫啊！（“The data was screaming at us!”）

天啟四騎士：Fear, Greed, Hope and Ignorance

投資的四個敵人：恐懼、貪婪、渴望和無知。

聽Jim O'Shaughnessy講他2009年5月去和華爾街上合作多年的LP見面，對方指著他的公文包說：“我了解你，你包里肯定裝了很多數據、表格、ppt，來說服我現在是買入的好時機 —— 我不聽不聽！貝爾·斯登120年老店都能倒閉、美林這么大的盤子都能倒，美國肯定要崩潰了，我啥也不買！”

可能情形和或然性 Possibility and Probability

Jim當時在最低點抄底，十年后回首，說老伙計LP沒有分清“可能性”和“或然性”的區別。美國金融徹底崩潰？這當然是一個可能情形（possibility），但是由于有美聯儲兜底，發生的概率足夠低，所以其實沒有或然性（probability）。

什么是或然性？

Jim口中的或然性，主要指的是通過數學期望來理性的指導行為。如果關注可能情形（possibility）那么出門可能被雷劈，但是如果關注或然性（probability），我們的決策應該是每天照常出門的。

行為經濟學里說，人性在概率面前是不理性的，總會過度關注極端的可能性/可能情形，而無法真正的理解概率和數學期望。

Richard Thaler（理查德·塞勒 - 2017年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主）的理論是，人們在接近于0的數字面前，理解力會有巨大偏差：比如，坐飛機失事的概率二十萬分之一和二百萬分之一的區別是多大？多數人要么聚焦于存在失事的可能性而不坐飛機，要么直接選擇忽略，也就是說由于數字足夠小，就把這個概率等同于0。

類似的，如果丟了10塊錢，人們感到的沮喪，并不是損失10000塊錢的難受程度的千分之一；做一個上下幾萬元的決策，所花的時間也并不是一個上下20元的決策的一千倍 —— 看看女同胞們在淘寶上花多少時間比價就知道啦。（男女的情緒偏差在文末論文中有提及，女性可能更適合長線投資。）

蛇和回撤

Jim經常問客戶，你最大能接受投資賬戶多少比例的回撤？如果跌了25%你會堅持穿越周期嗎？

在人多的會議室里，男客戶多數時候都會回答，“肯定能堅持“！

然而搞了35年投資，他發現事到臨頭，滿不是這么回事。回撤到來的時候，恐懼、貪婪、渴望和無知：投資末日的天啟四騎士會一并沖將上來。

后來他們做了個小實驗：

在大會議室里問男客戶，“你怕蛇嗎？”

男人很多都會回答：“我不怕蛇！”

答不怕的，立刻把一條塑料蛇甩到桌面上，客戶一個個嚇得跳起來 —— 中國古話講葉公好龍，誠不我欺啊。

畫鬼容易畫人難

如果理解了文章開頭那個反直覺的理論，就會明白，價值投資的本質是穿越周期。理解并能防備最差的“可能情形”，但是按照“或然性”來行事，才是理性的。

主持人問Jim，你覺得今年年底美股會漲還是跌？

Jim回答：“我們又回到了恐懼、貪婪和渴望這個主題。我無法回答你 今天 或 今年 股票漲還是跌，老實說我一竅不通。但是隨著時間線越拉越長，我會越來越有判斷。

如果你問我10年或15年的漲跌，我會從有些悲觀的態度，變成極度樂觀。（筆者按：畫鬼容易畫人難）

我甚至于不會嘗試去抓最佳時機（“Time the market”）。

我認為馬斯克也并不去嘗試在最好的時間點去創業和交易。

看足夠久的長線，美股漲，是一個或然性。

舉個例子：如果你養狗，你每周去超市買狗糧，一袋10美金。突然有一天，狗糧打折，變成一袋5美金了，你會怎么做？當然是多買些，買他個四五袋囤貨啊！

只有股票市場里，人們會在價格跌的時候，反而不買了。”（筆者按：這一段和段永平說的“越跌越買”是一回事。）

Now we're back to fear greed and hope. And we're back to arbitraging human nature because look, I don't know what the markets are going to close today? I have no idea, zero. What at the end of this year the market will be. But as we extend our time frames, my ideas get stronger and stronger when you start asking me about 10 years 15 years, I go from being pretty bearish to being very bullish. But the default is if you could successfully time markets you would be the richest person on this planet. ?And Elon Musk, I don't think he tries to time markets. Now people who don't like him might say he did that with those coins. But the fact is those are temporary dislocations. If you will, I am much more interested in the directional movement of various asset classes and in the case of US stocks. I think directionally they're heading up. That does not mean that we might not have a wicked wicked bear market. And if the Fed decides to raise interest rates. That means that we could have a significant recession.

The challenge with all of this is let's say somebody's listening to our podcast right and they've read my book or whatever and they think that I know a lot about the market. And so they say to their significant other, you know, I just heard geodesy who's like totally always bullish on the market. He said he was worried about the market here. Let's wait. The problem is waiting until the water clears —— the water never clears. And so the default assumption that I urge all investors to do is consistently put money into the market.

It's really, really simple.

If let's say you have a dog right and you buy a weeks worth of his food. Every week at the supermarket and let's say it cost you $10 and you have enough cans to feed your dog for the next week. If you walked into the supermarket and you saw that they were having a special on the dog food and it was only $5 to buy all the cans. Do you run home and return those files in those cans of dog food of course not! You bulk up on it, you might even buy 4 weeks or 5 weeks! Only in the stock market, it seems to me, people rush to sell when the price drops.

區分人才的唯一指標：

延遲滿足感

談到如何識別人才，Jim認為單一最重要的指標，就是延遲滿足感。

“一個人智力如果達到優秀水平（120以上），140 IQ 和 120 IQ，對兩個人的未來成就來說是沒有區別的。

如果有十個年輕人，我來投資他們其中一人，用未來他/她的終生收入作為回報的話，那么我會投那個最有延遲滿足感的人。因為唯一能預測一個年輕人未來能否成事的，是延遲滿足感（Delayed Gratification），或者說耐心。

PPP理論，耐心、堅持 加 方法論（Patience Persistence Process）。我會挑選三個P最出眾的年輕人。”

說實話，筆者覺得Patience Persistence Process，幾乎就是一回事兒啊。

王興說的長期有耐心、每天前進三十公里，張一鳴講的延遲滿足感，左暉說的做難而正確的事情。成功之道，往往就是如此樸實。

“不論你是高價買優質公司、撿煙蒂還是非共識投資，找到適合你的策略，然后就靜待其成吧。讓它自然發生。老實說，成功的投資，應該和看著墻上的油漆漸漸風干一樣，慢、平平無奇、毫不激動人心。”

So yeah, there is and the data specifically is around the ability to delay gratification right and there's a study which is under some scrutiny because it apparently is not replicated. But everyone is familiar with it right and it's the one where the little kids put in the room with 2 marshmallows and I can't remember the exact way they do the study. But if he only or she only eats one they'll give him like several more. But if he or she eats 2, they don't give him anymore than it is. Basically, a proxy for that individual's ability to delay gratification and that is a really interesting marker for human beings, those who can delay gratification. Those who have patience and those who persist all of the studies that I've seen or we've conducted actually show that like raw intelligence. it's great to have, but if you took somebody who had an IQ of 100. Whatever gifted is 140 or or thereabouts and then contrasted them with somebody who has a 120 IQ, which is typically the IQ you need to get into legal or medical school. You can't make any prediction based on those 2 numbers.

This guy could be a nervous Nellie and like just flip out whenever because he's so smart, he could think of all the really out there scenario. It's about what could go wrong and this guy is just persistent.

So if I were like if you said Jim you've got to invest in the careers of these 10 young people who have distinguished themselves in investing what I would look for is persistence and patience, and the ability to follow a process. PPP patience process persistence if you persistently use a well supported by empirical evidence process. You will be rewarded will it work for you always of course not during the Times that it's not working for you, you will be ridiculed you will be called names. People make fun of you and that's just part of the drill here. As you decide you want to be Google and be the King of indexing which is by the way totally acceptable choice for many investors. In fact, I would say the preferable choice. If you are just not like us and stock market junkie. But you just know you want to save and send your kids to middle schools and have some money in retirement. That's a perfectly acceptable way to invest money.

But the idea of those 3Ps persistence process patience. Those are going to be the winners and by the way. The Warren Buffett of 2039 or 2040 is going to get there in a much, much different way than are Warren Buffett got there. He took advantage of the conditions if you will. On the ground this gets back to kind of this idea of saturated intuition, but then he grew. He used to invest like his Idol an teacher Ben Graham, who wrote the securities analysis and the intelligent investor and that was called the margin of safety and buy cigar butts and etc etc. Like super cheap's companies and then selling them when they reach when you think there were an yeah. That's 1 way to do it. None of our value stuff does that particular methodology if you do get a serendipitous. Amount of those companies, yeah, I'd say scoop him up.

But So what profit did was decide no no. I'm gonna devolve myself and he didn't and so don't sanctify any belief right because the sacred. Is unquestionable and it becomes doctrine and every time if you study history and you look at ideas. You look at institutions. You look at all of these things when you make something sacred and. If you question it your heretic or apostate very bad. Things happen learn from everyone study. Buffets study gram and duck study the momentum guides study everything that you think there is a reasonable hypothesis. Underneath for that particular school of investing you'll probably end up with a hybrid but.

It's fine, I used to. I was much more of a proselytizer. When I was young. In terms of you've got to do it this way. This is the only way right and then I realized I was young and foolish and there's a lot of different ways, the key thing. Is you've got to find something that's right for trick right and that could be very different than what's right for Jim one of the biggest mistakes I ever made? Was designing my own strategies to round one. Nation one for me, I have a really high risk tolerance and it was pointed out to me that Jim. These are like really crazy good, but when they're not working there crazy bad. And so we evolved that as well. But the point is you've got to find what's right for you and then just let it happen. Let it work. It sounded boring. I mean, successful investing, honestly, should be about as exciting as watching paint dry.

家族財富的智慧

Jim的祖父 I.A. O'Shaughnessy 是美國富可敵國的石油商人，曾經有肯尼迪家族的十倍身家，但是在去世前陸陸續續把自己95%的財富都捐獻掉了。圣母大學和圣托馬斯大學等都是因為他的捐贈而興盛的。

去世的時候，鄉里鄉親都到場，即使衣衫襤褸的乞丐都去親吻 I.A. 的額頭。

到了Jim這一代，稱得上是又一次白手起家干到億萬富翁。

可能有人要問，這一切是為了什么呢？從財富積累的角度，如果祖父沒有散盡家財，Jim也不用一輩子辛苦再重新賺錢了呀，圖個啥呀？

之前讀人類簡史，尤里·赫拉利有個理論說，不是人類馴服了小麥，而是小麥馴服了人類：小麥一身嬌氣，要長在松軟泥土里，燦爛陽光下，并且怕旱怕蟲，所以人類就給小麥松土施肥燒水捉蟲，并且開始了定居生活，人類也因為長期的勞作得了一些諸如腰間盤突出的疾病...

當今社會何不如此呢？不是我們賺得了財富，而是資本奴役了我們啊！看看美劇《繼承之戰》，富二代、富三代的日子，是多么的被資本所異化，親情友情全都被撕扯的不成樣子。

成吉思汗統有四海，幾個兒子分封天下各國，然而不過幾十年內，欽察汗國、察合臺汗國、窩闊臺汗國、伊爾汗國相互攻殺。拖雷系的元朝、伊爾汗國聯手，對付欽察汗國、窩闊臺汗國，西域、漠北地區烽火連天。

過多的財富和權力的傳承，與其說是祝福，其實多半是詛咒吧。

樂善好施

以產遺子孫，不如以德遺子孫

Jim祖父的智慧，頗有蘇州貝氏耕讀世家之風。

孟子曰：“君子之澤，五世而斬。”

貝聿銘是蘇州貝氏的富十五代，祖上富有蘇州獅子林，明清皇帝下江南都來他家后花園住。

貝氏一族經歷了數個大時代的浪濤和風雨，不僅屹立不倒，反而歷經15代蒸蒸日上。

其中最關鍵的便是貝氏祖訓：

以產遺子孫，不如以德遺子孫；

以獨有之產遺子孫，不如以公有之產遺子孫。

畢竟四世三公不常有，耕讀不輟方能傳世。

1877年，貝康侯在獅林寺巷購屋近百間重設貝家祠堂，并捐田五百畝創辦“留余義莊”，以租米周濟貧困的男女族人。

義莊規定，每位無以自存的族人每月都可來領取二十多斤的大米以維持生計。義莊還舉辦義塾，免費供族內子弟求學，如果考取秀才，還有四千文錢的獎勵。

原來貝潤生一直牢記當年貝康侯設立的留余義莊對自己的恩惠，于是三十年代將自己在蘇州的田產全部捐出成立“承訓義莊”，繼留余義莊以后更加熱誠地為貝氏族人服務。正是這一決定，讓貝家在土改時期被定性為可以合作合營的“民族資本家”，而不是作為階級敵人、清算對象的“工商大地主”。

1917年，貝聿銘出生。同年，貝潤生花了9900銀元購置下早已荒廢的獅子林，又花了八十萬銀元買下周圍一千多畝地的民房宅基并打通獅子林進行整修，園林壯麗，氣象奢華。

貝潤生沒有把獅子林變成他的私家園林，而是全族共用，作為承訓義莊的辦事處，也是家族祠堂和家族學校的所在地。

都說童年接受的熏陶會影響終生。貝聿銘童年在獅子林度過了一段美好又難忘的時光。獅子林的曲徑通幽、禪宗寓意，也深深影響了貝聿銘，啟迪了他對于建筑最初的審美和靈感，產生了美學的萌芽。

成名后，他曾贊嘆蘇州園林的迂回曲折之美，認為其在有限空間內給人無限遐想，并稱這成為他個人創造力的啟蒙。

“創意是人類的巧手和自然的共同結晶，這是我從蘇州園林中學到的”。后來功成名就的貝聿銘如是說。

命運就是這樣神奇。貝聿銘祖先的善舉幫助了族人貝潤生，貝潤生購入的獅子林又啟迪了貝聿銘的建筑靈感。這個家族靠著“樂善好施”這個家訓，實現了互相成就。

貝潤生與貝聿銘的祖父貝理泰還共同捐資，在蘇州城開辦了中國第一個新式幼稚園，十三世貝理泰，1922年起連任蘇州總商會會長7年，先后發起募捐巨款開辟了從閶門到虎丘的馬路，時稱"新馬路"，擔任過吳縣救火會會長，博習醫院、振華女子中學董事等。

解放前夕，孔祥熙一人就卷走了一億三千萬美元，而貝聿銘的父親、時任中銀總裁的貝祖詒遠走美國之時卻沒拿走一分公款。

樂善好施、誠信正直，這些優秀的品質，都是這個家族能夠十幾代財富傳承不斷的原因。

貝聿銘晚年設計的蘇州博物館落成故里，命運就是這樣的奇妙。

顯然的好處 vs. 隱含的代價

茨威格說：“命運的饋贈，都在暗中標好了價格。”

世人慌慌張張，不過圖碎銀幾兩；偏偏這碎銀幾兩，能解萬種慌張，保家中老人健康，兒女入得學堂。

我們經常會追尋那顯然的價值，而看不到隱含的代價。比如多得了那五斗米，卻放棄了氣節；少付了一些工資，卻損失了雇主品牌；享受了游艇豪宅，卻脫離了勞動人民。

錢當然是好東西，但是在追求財富的路上，我們是否看到了隱含的代價呢？

我們是獲得了財富，還是被資本所奴役了？

我們是取得了世俗的成功，還是磨滅了智慧之光，淪為一腔驢血、滿臉大包的中年油膩老板？

三歲孫女的對話

播客的最后，Jim講起他旁聽自己兒子和三歲小孫女的一段對話：

“Kate，你覺得人死了之后會去到哪里呢？”

“爸爸，我覺得火柴一旦燒盡了，就再也點不著了呀！”

那一刻，Jim被擊中了：大道至簡，從天真爛漫的小孫女嘴里說出來。是啊，人生苦短，哪有什么往生呢？不過是及時行樂、廣結善緣而已罷！

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